Comparing 3 Speeds of Change to Manage Uncertainty

Three Different Speeds Of Change

Let’s look at three trend sectors to determine how much change rates can vary and what that means for foresight and strategy.

Slow Change – Demography

Demography studies human populations and their characteristics, such as age, gender, ethnicity, migration, health, and education. Demographic trends tend to be slow and gradual but have long-term and profound effects on social, economic, and environmental issues. Some examples of demographic trends are aging population, urbanization, diversity, and mobility

Demographic changes unfold over decades, presenting a broad window of predictability. This slow pace is a solid foundation for long-term planning.

With the assurance that demographic trends, such as population growth or aging, will remain consistent over time, you can draft policies and strategies that cater to foreseeable needs and demands.

Intermediate Changes – Legal Trends

While not as swift as technological shifts, legal trends tend to adapt and evolve in response to societal norms and advancements. They occupy a middle ground where changes are more rapid than demographics but provide a window for adjustment.

Legal is the rules and regulations governing the behavior and interactions of individuals, groups, and institutions. Legal trends tend to be intermediate and complex but have variable and unpredictable effects on justice, security, and governance. Some legal trends include data privacy, human rights, cybercrime, and intellectual property.

This moderate pace allows you to adapt progressively. As regulatory landscapes change, there’s often enough lead time to adjust, ensuring compliance and maintaining operations seamlessly. But you do have to have an eye out for these changes and plan ahead.

Fast Changes – Technology

The realm of technology is a whirlwind of innovation. What’s groundbreaking today may be obsolete tomorrow. This rapid pace can be challenging but also a goldmine of opportunities.

Technology is the application of scientific knowledge and skills to create products, services, and systems that solve problems and improve lives. Technological trends tend to be fast and disruptive, but have short-term and uncertain effects on innovation, competition, and communication. Some examples of technological trends are artificial intelligence, biotechnology, nanotechnology, and blockchain.

If you stay abreast of tech trends and your organization can pivot quickly, then you’re in a good position to harness new tools and processes and leapfrog competitors. This agility can lead to market dominance and the creation of entirely new sectors.

The Concept Of Pace Layering

Pace layering is a concept that describes how complex systems, such as buildings, ecosystems, and civilizations, can adapt and learn from change by having different layers that operate at different speeds and scales. The concept was coined by architect Frank Duffy and later elaborated by futurist Stewart Brand.

According to Brand, a robust and adaptable civilization has six layers of pace and size. Each layer has a different function, lifespan, and degree of changeability. The faster layers are more responsive, innovative, and experimental, while the slower layers are more stable, conservative, and integrative.

The idea of pace layers also applies to our organization. Let’s break down these layers for organizations:

We can map the organizational pace layers onto the change layers in the organizational environment and see how each organizational layer can contribute to managing change in the trend layers.

• The people in an organization are its slowest layer. They are the ones who create and implement the organization’s processes and products, and they are also the ones most affected by changes.
• The processes in an organization are its slower-to-medium speed layer. They are how the organization gets things done and can be a source of efficiency and productivity.
• The products in an organization are its fastest-to-medium speed layer. They are the things the organization creates and sells and can be a source of innovation and growth.

One of the applications of pace layering is to help us understand and manage uncertainty in the face of rapid and disruptive change. By recognizing the different speeds and scales of change in various domains and contexts, we can better anticipate, prepare for, and respond to possible future scenarios.

How To Use Speeds Of Change In Foresight

By using pace layering, we can manage uncertainty by matching speeds. For example:

• We can use demographic trends for long-term planning and strategy development. Since these trends are relatively slow and predictable, we can use them to identify opportunities and challenges that will shape our future society. By extrapolating these changes, we create time to let people (one of the organization’s slowest layers) familiarize themselves with possible new societies and find ways to adapt to them.
• We can use legal trends as a means of intermediate adaptation and regulation. Since these trends are complex and variable, we can use them to balance the interests and rights of different stakeholders.
• We can use technological trends as a source of short-term experimentation and innovation. Since these trends are rapidly changing and uncertain, we can use them to test new ideas and solutions that can improve our lives. You can match the fast pace of technological change with innovative products, the organization’s fastest layer.

Actions To Harness The Advantage Of Unravelling Speeds Of Change

• Diversify Strategy Horizons: Not every strategy should have the same timeframe. Long-term strategies can align with demographic changes, mid-term ones with legal shifts, and short-term strategies can ride the wave of technological advancements.
• Stay Educated: Regularly update yourself and your team on varying speeds of trends. This will aid in preemptive actions rather than reactive ones.
• Flexibility in Approach: Embrace an adaptable mindset. This doesn’t mean constant change but rather the capacity to change when necessary.
• Scenario Planning: Consider different potential futures, from the very likely to outlandish. Doing so can prepare your organization for a broad range of possibilities.

In conclusion, the world’s ever-changing nature is an intricate dance of varied speeds. Recognizing and understanding these rhythms can equip organizations and individuals with the tools to manage uncertainty and thrive amidst it. Embrace the spectrum of change and wield it to your advantage.

References:

¹: Brand S (1994) How Buildings Learn: What Happens After They’re Built. Viking Penguin. ²: Wikipedia (2023) Shearing layers. Available at: Shearing layers – Wikipedia (Accessed: 13 August 2023). ³: Gartner (2023) Gartner’s PACE Layered Application Strategy – CIO Wiki. Available at: Gartner’s PACE Layered Application Strategy – CIO Wiki (Accessed: 13 August 2023). ⁴: United Nations (2023) World Population Prospects 2022: Highlights. Available at: World Population Prospects 2022: Highlights (Accessed: 13 August 2023). : World Economic Forum (2023) Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2023. Available at: Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2023 (Accessed: 13 August 2023). : European Commission (2023) Legal Trends Monitor 2023. Available at: Legal Trends Monitor 2023 (Accessed: 13 August 2023).