Working with futures that refuse to be predicted
Strategic foresight at the intersection of uncertainty, technology, and decision-making
For a long time, I tried to make strategy work the way it is supposed to. I used familiar frameworks, ran workshops, introduced models, and helped organizations articulate where they wanted to go. Sometimes it worked. Often it didn’t. Even when people did everything “right”, the future had a habit of turning out differently.
That experience taught me something important: the problem is not a lack of intelligence, data, or effort. The problem is that many of the futures we care about are fundamentally uncertain. Not temporarily unclear, but structurally unknowable in important ways.
That insight changed how I work.
Instead of trying to reduce uncertainty to manageable risks or neat forecasts, I focus on understanding what kind of uncertainty we are dealing with, what can be explored and what cannot, and how expectations about the future shape decisions in the present. In my work, foresight is not about seeing what will happen, but about learning how to act when the future does not cooperate.
I earned my PhD in managerial foresight because I wanted to understand not only how foresight works in practice, but why it sometimes fails — and what that failure reveals about decision-making under uncertainty. My research connects emerging technologies, strategic decision-making, and systems thinking, with a particular interest in how assumptions and anticipatory practices influence outcomes over time.
Today, I work as an independent researcher and futurist. I collaborate with universities, policymakers, and organizations on questions where technology, strategy, and uncertainty intersect. My projects range from emerging technologies and industrial transitions to labor markets and urban futures, but the underlying question is always the same: how do we make meaningful decisions when prediction is neither possible nor desirable?
I don’t offer ready-made answers or universal methods. What I offer is a way of thinking that makes uncertainty visible, assumptions discussable, and strategic choices more robust. Not by promising clarity, but by working with ambiguity rather than against it.
Because the future doesn’t need better predictions.
It needs better questions.
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