Why Foresight Matters

As businesses navigate a landscape marked by economic and geopolitical challenges, 85% of CEOs recognize the necessity of strategic foresight and adaptability. Their leadership is crucial in steering their organizations through uncertainty with resilience, ensuring that businesses are prepared to handle immediate disruptions and thrive in a post-challenge environment. CEOs prioritizing resilience tend to guide their companies toward stability and growth despite external pressures.

Source: Digitaldefynd 2025

Since 2022, the industries in which CEOs feel most under pressure to reinvent have been largely consistent: media and entertainment, technology, telecom, and industrial manufacturing. These are all sectors in which digitisation, decarbonisation or both are changing the basis of competition.

Yet there are now signs of rising anxiety elsewhere. In 2023, only 28% of pharmaceutical CEOs said their company wouldn’t be viable for more than ten years if it continued on its current path. Last year, this increased to 38%, and again this year to 45%.

Across all sectors, just under two-thirds of CEOs (63%) report having taken at least one significant action to change how their company creates, delivers and captures value. The most common reinvention actions are product and service innovation and moves to target new customer groups. Fewer companies have taken actions that typically come with higher degrees of difficulty—such as pioneering new routes to market, implementing new pricing models or collaborating with other organisations to create new ecosystems.

Source: 

PwC’s 28th Annual Global CEO Survey. Reinvention on the edge of tomorrow (2024)

Rapid changes anticipated in the future of work already influence the needed competences and have significant implications for the education and training. It is of key importance to prepare the next generation of employees for the rapidly evolving world of work. They need to apply their knowledge in an unknown and changing environment.

To meet this challenge, a broad range of skills with an increasing role of soft competences is required.

Unfortunately, both the education systems and formal training system often do not respond appropriately to shape future-oriented competences. 

Amongst the future-oriented competences, one should mention the following: creativity, problem-solving, and dealing with uncertainty and with the changing environment. They can be effectively shaped, thanks to the use of foresight and Futures Literacy. 

The application of foresight supports the determina- tion of future-oriented competences, creating visions of the future, and making a conscious, theoretically best choice between different variants of the future, only one of which will arise. But foresight can also be success- fully used to develop competences that will be needed in the future, for example creativity and dealing with uncertainty. Here attention should be paid to the need to strengthen the development of competences at the in- dividual level.

In turn, the Futures Literacy approach should be used to stimulate more conscious thinking about the future and a critical look at one’s visions and assumptions about the future. Futures Literacy enables one to develop crea- tive and abstract thinking and go beyond what is only planned, reasonable, probable, possible, and feasible. Thanks to this, it helps one to prepare for an uncertain future, i.e. it equips one with future-oriented compe- tences.
Therefore, both foresight and Futures Literacy enable the development of competences necessary to function in a changing environment, including developing creativ- ity, dealing with uncertainty, and supporting decision- making.

Source: 

Identification and development of future-oriented competences (2022)

A 2020 survey of senior management executives of the largest European and US companies, conducted by the Nuremberg Institute of Market Decisions (NIM), concluded that more than 90% had foresight activities in their organizations, to varying degrees. About 34% of the companies reported that a separate business unit was responsible for strategic foresight, while the majority reported that strategic foresight activities were part of other departments or an additional responsibility of managers.

Source: 

The Value of Foresight in a VUCA World (2021)

Foresight can lead to actionable career steps by helping individuals identify upcoming trends and potential career paths. It encourages conscious planning and the ability to adapt to dynamic labor market conditions. By utilizing foresight methodologies, individuals can set specific goals and develop strategies for their professional development.

The study involved qualitative research with in-depth interviews of counseling professionals and quantitative research using the SERVQUAL model to assess service quality from the perspective of career advisors. A total of 253 respondents participated, including practitioners from various sectors related to career support and development.

Source: 

Foresight for Career Development (June 2020)

Foresight skills, particularly the ability to develop a strategic vision and anticipate change, are crucial for future leaders.

These skills enable leaders to identify industry trends and new opportunities, which can significantly advance their careers.

Additionally, fostering a culture of innovation and being proactive in managing change are essential for career progression.

Thus, mastering foresight skills contributes to effective leadership and enhances career advancement opportunities in dynamic organizational environments.

Source: 

Fransisca, V., & Saputro, W. E. (2023). Leaders Shaping The Future: Required Management Skills. 2(6), 226–230. https://doi.org/10.58631/ajemb.v2i6.44

Superior industry foresight, particularly in dynamic contexts like the global automotive industry, is crucial for managers and entrepreneurs in making strategic decisions and identifying opportunities. 

Learning-based forecasting behavior, which involves updating beliefs by incorporating new information, generates superior industry foresight.

This approach helps managers and entrepreneurs identify opportunities and make informed strategic decisions, even in the face of uncertainty

Source:

Kapoor, R., & Wilde, D. (2022). Peering Into a Crystal Ball: Forecasting Behavior and Industry Foresight. Strategic Management Journal. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.3450

A qualitative study based on 11 45-minute interviews during a period of 4 years, found that foresight influenced a company’s management futures skills, namely anticipation and cognitive flexibility.

This influence, in turn, had a discernible impact on their decision-making processes and the company’s
decision-making culture.

Decision-making changed by incorporating a long-term perspective and a multi-track approach, allowing managers to consider diverse futures and additional risks alongside opportunities.

Managers developed a "mental filter" for evaluating decisions, leading to a shift from short-term profit-driven justifications to aligning investments with long-term goals.

Overall, while specific decisions remained largely unchanged, the decision-making process became more nuanced and anticipatory, fostering a culture of futures thinking.

Source: The  impact  of  futures  skills  on  decision-making:  A  dairy company case study (february 2024)

Strategic leadership plays a critical role in shaping the direction and success of organizations, especially in emerging industries where innovation, agility, and foresight are essential.

This study explores the impact of strategic leadership on enhancing organizational performance by analyzing key leadership practices, decision-making approaches, and the alignment of leadership strategies with organizational goals.

Using a case study methodology, this research investigates firms within emerging industries, such as technology, renewable energy, and biotechnology, to assess how leadership drives competitive advantage, fosters innovation, and sustains growth.

The study identifies leadership traits and practices that contribute to high performance, including vision-setting, adaptability, talent management, and stakeholder engagement.

The findings highlight the importance of aligning leadership strategies with rapidly changing market dynamics and suggest practical insights for organizations seeking to improve their leadership practices. 

Source: Exploring the Role of Strategic Leadership in Enhancing
Organizational Performance: A Case Study of Emerging
Industries (2024)

Strategic foresight capabilities have a significant and positive impact on organizational performance, influencing factors such as internal operations, learning and growth, and customer satisfaction.

Source: The Impact of Strategic Foresight on Organizational Performance at Private Iraqi Commercial Banks (2022)

Organizations that systematically engage in strategic foresight can achieve up to 33% higher profitability and 200% higher market capitalization growth compared to their peers. ​

Firms with deficiencies face with a performance discount of 37% to 108%.

Source: 

Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis (2018)

Findings show that forward-looking strategies provide an organization with the ability to identify potential risks and opportunities, develop adaptive strategies, and achieve long-term growth Specifically, strategic organizations using anticipation reports a 30% increase in the ability to anticipate market fluctuations, a 25% improvement in strategic haste and a 20% reduction in unexpected disruptions, of consumer goods etc. Case studies of various industries demonstrate the practical application and usefulness of forecasting in real-world situations The study concludes that incorporating forward-looking strategies into business planning does not that it not only prepares organizations for future challenges but empowers them to shape their future and ensure sustainable competitive advantage.

Source: AI-Driven Strategic Foresight: Anticipating Future Trends and Modelling Business Strategies (December, 2024)

Applying strategic foresight to the business model innovation process yields better results than isolated attempts to innovate business models.

The crucial phases of the strategic foresight process can reveal the underlying dynamics and structure of business model innovation by mapping and shaping the future. Additionally, this might help assist the gradual acquisition of all the new and essential resources and make it easier to make better-informed decisions about how to allocate resources in order to reorganize internal operations for a new business model.

Strategic foresight contributes significantly to the originality of new company concepts. It is more likely that truly innovative opportunities will emerge when a wider range of economic and technology opportunities are explored and generated.

Source: 

Strategic foresight and business model innovation: The sequential mediating role of sensemaking and learning (March 2024)

Incorporating foresight practices into the innovation process is relevant to enhance the competitiveness of companies in dynamic and complex environments. 

This paper maps three roles that foresight assumes when associated with innovation and that help leverage the innovativeness of firms:

1. The informational role concerns monitoring weak signals that indicate future developments
2. The facilitation role concerns using prospective tools that stimulate collective visions of the future
3. The strategic influence role deals with recommendations that support decision-making.

Source: The roles of foresight in leveraging the innovativeness of organisations

The study states that future-oriented skills, proactive leadership, market awareness, user-focused adaptations, and the integration of foresight into strategic planning are critical for enhancing business performance and resilience in a rapidly changing business landscape.

• Future-oriented skills, such as foresight and adaptability, are essential for effective strategic decision-making in a VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) environment. These skills enable firms to navigate market trends and drive innovation effectively.
• Proactive leadership is identified as a significant factor influencing a firm's resilience. Leaders who anticipate changes and adapt strategies accordingly can better position their firms to respond to market dynamics.
• Being aware of market trends allows companies to make informed decisions that align with consumer needs and preferences, ultimately enhancing business performance.
• Adapting products based on user feedback and market demands is vital. The findings suggest that firms that prioritize user-focused adaptations are more likely to succeed in a competitive landscape.
• The research suggests that integrating foresight into strategic planning processes fosters a culture of continuous learning. This culture is essential for maintaining a sustainable competitive advantage, as it encourages firms to remain agile and responsive to changes.

Source: Future-Oriented Skills in Strategic Decision-Making: A Case Study of a Leading Technology Firm (2024)