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Strategic Decisions in an Uncertain World

 

Anticipating technological change under deep uncertainty

 

Organizations are often asked to act before the future becomes clear. My work helps leaders diagnose uncertainty, understand system dynamics, and make better strategic choices

To the diagnostic questions
About my research

The Future Rarely Moves in Straight Lines —Strategy Shouldn’t Pretend It Does

 

Technological change, sector transitions, and complex systems create uncertainty that cannot always be resolved by better forecasting. Still, organizations must decide.

My work helps leaders diagnose the nature of that uncertainty, understand the dynamics at play, and choose strategies that remain sound even when the future is unclear.

I don’t reduce the complexity of what's happening into neat stories or predictions. I make complexity understandable. This is the thinking behind the Seven Diagnostic Questions.

Because better decisions start with a better diagnosis.

Stop Asking What Will Happen

Seven diagnostic questions for strategy development when the future is uncertain

Executives routinely treat uncertainty as a forecasting problem. Research shows that this instinct often leads organizations into overconfidence, premature commitments, and costly strategic lock-ins.

The seven diagnostic questions provide a practical way to understand what kind of uncertainty you are dealing with—and what strategy actually makes sense.

Based on research into forecast overconfidence, weak signals, and strategy under true uncertainty.

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What I Offer:

 

Short Online Course to Diagnose Uncertainty

 

Learn a practical diagnostic used in foresight and strategy to decide when you can predict, when you must adapt, and when you should delay commitment.

Learn how to:

  • Diagnose the level of uncertainty in your organizational environment
  • Choose a strategy that remains viable even if you're wrong about what's changing and when
  • Identify the early warnings of changes in your organizational environment
  • Inform your stakeholders about uncertainty without worrying them

The first module is free.

Start the free module

Foresight & System Analysis for Organisations

 

For leadership teams working with:

  • technological shifts

  • sector-wide transitions

  • innovation bottlenecks

  • regional or multi-stakeholder “knots”

I provide horizon scans, system maps, causal loop diagrams, weak-signal interpretation and structured strategic conversations.

Outcome:
A shared, grounded understanding of what’s unfolding — and the clarity to make decisions that hold up under uncertainty.

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Executive Education for Universities

 

I design and deliver modules on foresight, uncertainty, and complex system behaviour.

Participants learn:

  • How to work with ambiguity and weak signals

  • How to interpret emerging change

  • How to think strategically when prediction breaks down

The focus is practical and realistic:
good questions, clear reasoning, and methods that work in the real world.

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How I Work

  • Independent — no fixed frameworks, no institutional agenda.

  • Evidence-informed — grounded in research on technological and system dynamics.

  • Structured — clear methods that make complex situations easier to understand.

  • Practical — insights that support real decisions, not abstract theory.

  • Calm and clear — no jargon, no theatrics, no hypes.

My aim is simple:
help people think clearly in situations where clarity is normally hard to find.

Examples of Typical Briefs

  • "We hear about this grand technological shift (AI, Quantum computing, robotics), but it's unclear how this will impact us."
  • "Our region/industry is likely to change, but how? And what does that mean for strategy?"
  • "We are planning to invest in a long-term project. Can we get more clarity about the contextual changes that this project will have to survive?"
  • "We are revisiting our overall strategy. How can we improve it?"
  • "How should we work with our innovation ecosystem to bring our technology to market?"

If these sound familiar, we’re likely a good match.

About Me

I’m an independent researcher and educator specializing in strategic foresight for emerging technologies and complex innovation systems. My work focuses on uncertainty — what we can know, what we can’t, and how to reason responsibly between those two points.

I frequently work with universities, regional ecosystems, and sector-wide organizations facing complex questions with no single right answer.

Work with me