See How Your System Is About to Change -Before It Hits You

 

Most strategies fail because you developed them to change isolated issues. I map how one change reshapes everything — and what that means for your strategies.

Risks of System Blindness in Strategy

If you're developing strategies while your environment is shifting in ways you cannot fully see, you risk making the right decision for the wrong system. And your strategy will at best yield suboptimal results.

Many domains influence your organization's environment. Think about these three examples:

  • New technologies are emerging, but it’s unclear which format will win. Will it be ChatGPT, Claude, or some other app? Will it be hydrogen, biomethane, or some other energy source? Can you switch to the winner, or are you locked in?
  • Policy changes ripple across sectors. NATO countries are increasing national defense spending. Where do they get the budget? Are you in the domain that gets cut?
  • Talent development and transitions do not operate at the same speed. Are you training talents in the skills you need for new technologies and green transitions, or will you be forced to pay premiums or wait?

Local issues often signal a larger system shift. If you don't consider the system, your initiative might fail. Take a look at the Northvolt example how this works -> 

 

Northvolt aimed to reduce Europe's dependence on Asian battery producers and received billions in investment and political support. But building factories turned out to be only one part of a much larger system involving supply chains, energy markets, industrial know-how, geopolitics, labor, regulation, and shifting capital markets.

Northvolt scaled faster than the ecosystem around it could support, and its battery initiative failed.

To Financial Times article

What I Offer and Why it Matters

 

System Shift Analysis

I identify one critical change — and map how it reshapes your entire system.

Not as a forecast.
But as a structured understanding of what is already unfolding.

 

What You Get

A System Shift Analysis delivers:

  • A structured map of system effects (30–50+ concrete impacts)
  • Insight across interconnected domains (e.g. energy, labor, value chains, policy)
  • A strategic radar (short, mid, long-term developments)
  • Key uncertainties that shape your future options
  • Clear implications for your organization, sector, or region
  • Concrete actions to respond, adapt, or lead

👉 You don’t just understand what is changing.
👉 You know what to do about it.

How System Shift Analysis Works

I follow a consistent method:

  1. Identify the shift
    The one development that will reshape your system
  2. Map cross-case evidence
    What is already happening elsewhere?
  3. Translate to your system
    Which effects are emerging locally?
  4. Structure the system
    Across domains and interactions
  5. Expose uncertainty
    What remains unclear — and why it matters
  6. Define actions
    What you should do now, despite uncertainty

Example Work

Navigating the Green Steel Transition (IJmond)

 

  • 47 system effects identified
  • across 8 interconnected domains
  • all are already visible in the region
  • translated into strategic actions for companies and policymakers

Quantum Technology Strategy (QuTech)

 

  • Deep uncertainty mapped across technologies, markets, and ecosystems
  • Strategic options defined under competing future scenarios
  • Organizational implications made explicit

 

Long-Term Population and Urban Futures (Bazaarstad)

 

  • Demographic shifts translated into housing demand and regional positioning
  • Migration, household formation, and labor markets are connected into one system
  • Result: clear development strategy for a new urban concept

 

Who Is This For?

 

I work with:

  • Regional networks and industry clusters
  • Governments and public institutions
  • Boards and strategy teams

 

When This Matters Most

 

A System Shift Analysis is most valuable when:

  • You face major technological or societal change
  • You need to make long-term investments under uncertainty
  • Your decisions depend on multiple interdependent actors
  • You cannot afford to be wrong about what is changing

Let’s Map Your System

 

If you are dealing with a major shift and need clarity on what it means:

👉 Let’s talk.

Frequently Asked Questions