Strategy Is Hardest When the Future Is Unclear

Learn a practical diagnostic used in foresight and strategy to decide when you can predict, when you must adapt, and when you should delay commitment.

Three quick outcomes:

  1. Recognize when your environment is predictable vs. strategically uncertain
  2. Choose strategies that remain viable even if you are wrong
  3. Learn how to inform your stakeholders about uncertainty without worrying them

Start the Free Introduction

Used in university-level executive education and strategy workshops

The full price is € 129 ex. VAT, but this will only be charged once you decide to go to module 2 (the first module is free)

Compare the FT uncertainty warning (April 21, 2025) with the usual company forecasts underpinning strategy

Most Strategy Tools Assume the Future Can Be Forecast

In reality, many organizations face situations like these:

• AI may reshape your industry, but no one agrees on how.
• A new technology looks promising, but timelines keep shifting.
• Large investments must be decided before the picture is clear.

Traditional strategy asks for a plan.

But when the environment is strategically uncertain, planning alone can create risk.

This short course shows a different approach.

Why Smart Organizations Can Get This Wrong

Kodak did not fail because it ignored digital photography. Kodak engineers built one of the first digital cameras in 1975, and the company invested in digital imaging for decades.

The real problem was timing.

Through the 1980s and 1990s, no one knew when digital quality would surpass film, how quickly consumers would switch, or which business models would work. Meanwhile film was still enormously profitable.

Committing too early could destroy the existing business. Waiting too long could destroy the company.

That is the essence of strategic uncertainty. And we're facing it now, with new emerging technologies.

This course teaches a simple way to recognize those situations before committing.

Compare Kodak's uncertainty with ours about new emerging tech

The Key Question:

Is the future predictable — or strategically uncertain?

Before choosing a strategy, you first need to diagnose the situation.

In predictable environments, analysis and forecasting work well.

In strategically uncertain environments, the better approach is to:

• keep options open
• stage commitments
• monitor signals
• design strategies that remain robust across multiple futures

This course teaches a simple diagnostic that helps you decide which logic to use.

What You'll Learn

 

Module 1 (free)

Why smart strategies fail under uncertainty

Module 2

Diagnostic to determine how uncertain the future is

Module 3

Designing robust strategy tailored to uncertainty

Module 4

Applying the method to real cases (Kodak, AI)

Duration

The course takes 2 hours total. It's self-paced.

 

Downloads

  • Diagnostic worksheet
  • Strategy template
  • Signal monitoring template

 

Extras

  • Link list to backgrounds
  • Summaries of essential literature

Quick Diagnosis

Identify your organization's uncertainty type in just 20 minutes.

Effective Strategy

Learn to choose the right strategy approach for your situation.

Focused Vision

Read less and know more about how the future is likely to unfold

Why It Matters Now

Many current technologies develop faster than organizations can interpret them.

AI, energy transitions, quantum technology, or robotic automation.

See, for example, the projection for the AI market size from October 2025.

In these environments, the biggest risk is not being wrong.

The biggest risk is committing too early.

A good strategy keeps room to move.

Infographic: The AI Market Is Poised for Explosive Growth | Statista You will find more infographics at Statista
Dr. Barbara van Veen

About the Instructor

Dr. Barbara van Veen has been working on strategic foresight and emerging technologies with organizations navigating uncertainty since 2007.

Her work focuses on how strategy decisions today shape technological systems tomorrow and vice versa.

She earned her Ph.D. in managerial foresight in 2020. She's also certified by Harvard Business School as a higher education teacher (2022) and by the Case Centre to teach the case method (2022).

This course distills the practical diagnostic she uses in teaching and research.

 

Full course access

Your immediate access includes:

  • All three course modules (2 hours total learning time)

  • Downloadable tools 

  • Executive reference library

  • Lifetime access

Designed as a lasting strategic resource, not a one-time training.

 

Price: €129 (excl. VAT) 

Start with the Free Introduction

Start with Module 1 at no cost to understand the approach before committing.

Upgrade at any time to unlock the full diagnostic and tools.

You will only be charged once you decide to go to module 2 (the first module is free)

Get the practical diagnostic for real strategic uncertainty

In less than two hours, you will learn to:

  • Distinguish risk, uncertainty, and true uncertainty

  • Diagnose what kind of future your organization actually faces

  • Choose the right strategy approach: plan, analyze, or adapt

  • Act responsibly even when certainty is impossible and how to explain that to others

No jargon. No theory for its own sake.
Only what helps: a compact executive tool.

Frequently Asked Questions